New HarrisX Poll Shows Open and Competitive Field in Four- and Three- Candidate Race Permutations

Cuomo Leads Mamdani in a Head-to-Head Race by 15 Points
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NEW YORK, July 15, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- A new poll from HarrisX finds the New York City mayoral race shaping up to be a tight and competitive contest, with Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani statistically tied with former Governor Andrew Cuomo and Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa in a four-way race. While Mamdani leads Mayor Eric Adams in a head-to-head race, the poll shows Cuomo defeating the Democratic nominee by a wide 15-point margin in a one-on-one contest.

The survey of 585 registered New York City voters was conducted online between July 7–8, with key findings including:

• In a four-way race, Mamdani (26 percent) is tied with Cuomo (23 percent) and Sliwa (22 percent), all within the margin of error. Adams is at 13 percent and 15 percent of voters are undecided.
• In a three-way race without Adams, Cuomo (31 percent) is statistically tied with Mamdani (29 percent) and Sliwa (28 percent).
• In a three-way race without Cuomo, Mamdani leads by 10 points, winning 35 percent to Sliwa's 25 percent and Adams' 19 percent.
• In head-to-head matchups, Mamdani topples Adams 43 percent to 36 percent, but trails Cuomo 35 percent to 50 percent, a 15-point advantage for Cuomo.

The results show that Mamdani benefits most if Cuomo is not in the race, gaining a 10-point lead in that scenario. Conversely, Cuomo gains ground if Adams is not in the race and wins outright in a head-to-head matchup with Mamdani.

"These numbers show a volatile race still taking shape," said Dritan Nesho, CEO of HarrisX. "While the progressive base is fueling Mamdani's rise, Cuomo's broad name recognition and moderate appeal make him a formidable general election challenger."

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Survey Methodology

This survey was conducted online from July 7–8, 2025 among 585 registered voters in New York City. Respondents are recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment sampling. Recruitment occurs through a broad variety of professional, validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting methods. The results reflect a representative sample of likely registered voters in New York City. Results were weighted for age, gender, race/ethnicity, income, education, borough, party, and ideology where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population. The margin of error for the total sample is ±4.1 percentage points. This study was conducted independently by HarrisX prior to Andrew Cuomo's announcement to run as an independent in the general election.

About HarrisX
HarrisX is a leading strategic research, data analytics and AI consultancy focused on emerging technologies, business and social trends, public policy and politics. HarrisX conducts multi-method research in the United States and over 50 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public institutions, NGOs, global leaders and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, and one of the most accurate outfits in the 2024 presidential election, correctly calling the results in five out of seven battleground states and the national vote.

SOURCE HarrisX

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